Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

[FXOpen Trader]

NZD/USD Exchange Rate Falls from Nearly 5-Month High

The NZD/USD exchange rate has dropped from its highest level in nearly five months. On Wednesday, following the release of US inflation data, the NZD/USD rate exceeded 0.6220 for the first time since 15 January 2024.

However, today the rate has fallen approximately 1.3% from Friday’s peak, suggesting that the market's reaction to the US inflation news was overly emotional.

According to Reuters:
→ Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated a readiness to keep rates steady until clearer economic signals suggest a need for cuts.
→ Traders have reduced the likelihood of a Fed rate cut at the September meeting.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand does not plan to cut rates at all in 2024. According to Trading Economics, any rate cuts are unlikely before mid-2025.

Thus, the policies of the two central banks are balanced, and the current drop from nearly a 5-month high may be a return to a more balanced valuation after an emotional surge into overbought territory.

The RSI indicator supports this view.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

European Stock Indices Decline Amid Political Uncertainty

Today, the Eurostoxx 50 index (Europe 50 on FXOpen) has dropped below the early May minimum, reflecting escalating market concerns over the upcoming French elections, as reported by Reuters. Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire's acknowledgment that the current political crisis could evolve into a financial crisis has amplified fears, extending the political risk until June.

How long might this decline persist?

Fundamentally, statements from authorities could calm the markets.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

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• S&P 500 Index Hits Record after Major News
• Dollar Falls after Inflation Data: is a Change in Medium-Term Trends on the Horizon?
• FTSE 100 Index Declines after Labour Market News
• Gold Price Drops after US Employment Report

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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[FXOpen Trader]

Nikkei Index Falls Below 38,000 Points This Month for First Time

According to today's Nikkei 225 (Japan 225 on FXOpen) chart, the index quote dropped below 38,000 points at Monday's low, followed by a recovery (shown by an arrow).

One of the drivers of the decline was the automotive sector, whose shares led during the downturn. In particular, according to Reuters, Toyota Motors' shares fell by more than 2% as the company faces difficulties due to a certification scandal. Japanese national broadcaster NHK reported that Toyota will extend the production halt for some models until the end of July.

The fact that the Nikkei 225 (Japan 225 on FXOpen) price is recovering after dropping below the 38,000 mark suggests a false bearish breakout below this psychological level.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Adobe's Stock Surges Approximately 15% After Report Publication

On June 5th in the article "Is ADBE Stock Undervalued?", we highlighted several bullish signs, suggesting that the report published on June 13th could be a driver for a resumption of the uptrend.

Adobe's report released on June 13th proved to be strong:
→ Earnings per share: Actual = $4.48, Forecast = $4.39;
→ Revenue: Actual = $5.309 billion, Forecast = $5.291 billion. A 10% increase compared to the same quarter last year.

Furthermore, the company stated that:
→ AI is more of an advantage than a hindrance to business development;
→ “We’re seeing early success monetizing new AI technologies across our Digital Media and Digital Experience businesses,” said Shantanu Narayen, Adobe's CEO.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Nasdaq 100 Index Reaches 20,000 Points for the First Time

On 30 May, we noted some uncertainty in the price behaviour of the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) near the resistance level of 18,840, as shown by arrow #1.

Following this, the price declined and tested the former resistance at 18,250 (indicated by arrow #2) – the long lower shadow on the candle indicated aggressive demand (more details in the article on the Hammer pattern).

This test gave the bulls confidence to break through the 18,840 resistance.

In June, the price continued to rally within the ascending channel (shown in green), which is part of a larger ascending channel (shown in blue), driven by:
→ prospects for AI implementation;
→ prospects of Fed rate cuts.

Yesterday, the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) rose by approximately 1.2%, reaching the psychological level of 20,000 points. This record was supported by influential analysts raising their forecasts for US stock markets. For example:
→ Goldman Sachs raised the year-end 2024 target for the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) from 5200 to 5600;
→ Evercore ISI increased its forecast for the same index from 4750 to 6000.

Market sentiment was also buoyed by the anticipation of several comments from FOMC members scheduled for this week. These might confirm the Fed's intention to cut rates as early as September this year.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

European Currencies Adjust to Support Levels: Is Growth Possible?

A week rich in macroeconomic data contributed to the decline of the euro, yen, and pound. Notably, the following events were significant:

• Inflation falling for the second consecutive month (0.2% against the expected 0.3%);
• The publication of the updated forecast from the Federal Reserve (one reduction in the federal funds rate by 0.25%, presumably in September).

Nonetheless, despite the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve and the steady slowdown in inflation, European currencies managed to stay above key levels relative to the dollar, even laying the groundwork for forming reversal patterns.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

TSLA Shares Revive After Shareholder Meeting

Last week, Tesla held a shareholder meeting where the main events included:
→ Shareholders approving Elon Musk’s $56 billion compensation package in TSLA stock options;
→ Relocating the company’s legal headquarters to Texas;
→ Elon Musk’s statements on robotics, asserting that Optimus robots could make Tesla a $25 trillion company.

Approving the massive compensation eliminated the risk of Musk leaving the company (which would likely have caused a sharp drop in TSLA stock price). The billionaire thanked shareholders and today, 18 June, posted on X (Twitter) announcing that he is working on a new master plan for Tesla’s development, likely focusing on the prospects of Optimus robots.

Additionally, news emerged about the launch of Tesla Model 3 sales at a new price in China. This spurred activity in the TSLA stock market.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Sight Steady Increase

AUD/USD is attempting a recovery wave from 0.6590. NZD/USD could gain bullish momentum if there is a clear move above the 0.6150 resistance.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

• The Aussie Dollar found support near 0.6590 and is now recovering against the US Dollar.
• There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.6630 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
• NZD/USD is attempting a recovery wave above the 0.6110 resistance.
• There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.6150 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair dipped from the 0.6700 resistance zone. The Aussie Dollar declined below 0.6660, but the bulls were active near 0.6600 against the US Dollar.

A low was formed near 0.6590 and the pair is now correcting losses. There was a move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6704 swing high to the 0.6585 low. There was also a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 0.6630.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[FXOpen Trader]

Nvidia Becomes World's Most Valuable Company

According to the NVDA chart today, the share price rose yesterday to a new all-time high, surpassing $135 (after a 10-to-1 split). This pushed Nvidia's market capitalisation to $3.34 trillion, overtaking Microsoft, which is currently valued at $3.32 trillion.

As CNBC reports:
→ Nvidia shares have risen by more than 170% this year, with a strong driver being the first-quarter earnings report released in May.
→ Since the end of 2022, the shares have increased more than ninefold, driven by the emergence of generative artificial intelligence.
→ Nvidia holds around 80% of the AI chip market used in data centres, with this business expanding thanks to purchases by OpenAI, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta.

What are the prospects for NVDA's share price? Will the company be able to maintain its status as the most valuable company, a title that has traditionally belonged to either Apple or Microsoft?

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.